Lucky ground department Everybody's favourite Irish genius averages 137 in ODIs on this ground. That's not all. Alastair Cook averages 91 here, Ian Bell 87 and Craig Kieswetter 61. So when they all get first-ballers and England lose by 347 runs, you know whose house you should burn down: Statsguru's.

South Africa have won the toss and will bat first. That was a fairly straightforward decision on a surface that usually takes turn as the match progresses. The pitch is the reason England have broken the golden rule that you should never change a no-resulting team: Samit Patel comes in for Chris Woakes. That was a very late decision apparently. Poor Woakes. He waits a year for a recall and then gets dropped without facing, bowling or fielding a ball. Maybe his banter stinks or his armpits are unfunny or something. South Africa are unchanged.

England Cook (c), Bell, Trott, Bopara, Morgan, Kieswetter (wk), Patel, Bresnan, Swann, Anderson, Finn.

South Africa Amla, Smith, Elgar, de Villiers (c/wk), Duminy, du Plessis, McLaren, Parnell, Peterson, M Morkel, Tsotsobe.

Preamble Hello. There were times during Friday's Cardiff rainwatch that it was tempting to wonder whether this would become the first five-match ODI series to end 0-0. But the sun is shining, the weather is sweet at the Ageas Bowl today, and even Mystic Maisie, our fragrant Palms and Tea Leaves Editor, is predicting 100 overs. Woop woop! Come on, woop with me now.

The match – or an unexpected thunderstorm or such ferocity as to threaten the space/time continuum and the world's most immovable toupées, never mind our chances of getting 100 overs – will begin at 1pm.